Following a RT from the Herdmeister this presentation has much to get your head around. For me the exploration of weak and strong ties, social capital and norms echoes a book on economics I read on holiday last week ( I know, I have a real life on order, just Amazon couldn’t deliver in time) - Diane Coyle’s “The Soulful Science”.
From the slideshow it looks like the Guardian are trying to measure connectedness, a theme of econometrics geeks as well. As behavioural economics inches closer to social sciences and indeed social marketing there is a niche market opening up perhaps…
Oh and Diane Coyle has one mention of transport planners in the 250+ pages, in the concluding section on where economic research has “improved policy and made people’s lives better”:
“Not all transport planners make use of good economics, but where they have the efficiency and impact of the schemes has been transformed”
It is a truism that there’s no shortage of advice on social media measurement, just not one silver bullet solution that everyone gets… coming at this from a real world engineering perspective I understand the difficulties, just as I am impatient for a solution.
Looking for answers I noted that this post even mentions the traditional engineers approach, not just asking what is being measured, but why are we measuring it?
For example is this guy right in his chosen objectives in his slideshare presentation, Social Media ROI? That link came from we are social and again this month their blog focuses on measurement. I like their approach to dis-aggregating the different media impacts, depending on whether you are looking for a quick hit or long term relationship:
Working on a campaign in Brighton with our friends at Qube I have been doing my own research on social marketing measurement just so I can understand the questions I have to ask as a client – “What does success look like?”
I keep coming back to the resources on Measurementcamp, I can just about see how you can measure the success of selling a product through SM, for example, but not so sure about pushing a concept or position ( “think how you travel”)?
This is a Sunday morning ”where do I go next” blog post, fuelled by a big mug of tea and pain au chocolat…
I have just returned from a few days in Little Rock and since I lived there many years ago the city centre, like many US cities, is starting to come back from the loss of confidence in urban living in the 70’s. However apart from the Clinton Library and some regen of the riverside areas (usual makeover aimed at tourists) it appears to me that there is no radical new architecture or cohesive planning being applied – locals please correct me if I have missed something?
There is a US model to follow – Dallas.
With its recent urban regeneration completions under the generic Urban Re:Vision title – the latest is scheme is a design competition for urban living for otherwise uninspiring one city block (see above) – Re:Vision - this gives rise for optimism about urban planning in US cities away from the usual suspects – Portland, etc. As the Urban Vision people say:
“What if one block in Texas became the sustainable model for the world?”
(of course it would be more relevant if one block in Delhi became the sustainable model for the world, but we get the point…)
Previous competitions include designs for transport, energy, construction. One of those competitions, Re:Route, considered urban transport with a good mix of deliverable schemes and fanciful architects ideas (says the cynical transport planner).
I read about Shai Agassi’s plans for electric cars in Wired last summer and while it is high profile, with big name partners including Nissan Renault, I just wondered whether it was another software millionaire playing with cars (see Tesla as exhibit A). His plans are set out in more detail at betterplace.com , including a high minded vision:
A world living free from oil.
A planet healing and thriving.
And our environment and economy brought back into balance with each other.
The video of his speech is found on TED and it is worth watching for the undoubted enthusiasm – oil free nations such as Israel and Denmark by 2020 is the dream – I am still just a bit cynical (surprise). Key aims are affordable and convenient, no new science, using existing battery tech. Charging points everywhere so you can always charge and easy battery swaps, like gas stations. All good in theory…
What is interesting is the willingness to go with an open source, but standards based infrastructure approach. A lot of the solutions being supported by programmes such as the UK’s Technology Strategy Board Ultra Low Carbon Vehicle Project will play into the hands of monopoly suppliers.
BTW Wired are launching a new UK print version this month – how brave is that? I remember the short lived Wired UK from 1995, but then I was the only subscriber
One of the most telling moments at Mipim this week was the Innovation seminar. Now seminars at Mipim are never that well attended – theres deals to be done, wine to drink – but even so less than 100 people in a big room reminded me of the industries weaknesses – introversion, conservatism, complacency.
The speaker, Robert Newhart II, an American innovation evangelist, preached a pretty mainstream spin on innovation (and creativity) compared to some of the more edgy stuff we hear in the UK, whether from Nesta or the social marketing sector. Drawing on his “Free Radicals of Innovation” film, there were examples – the usual suspects – Apple, Sony, Nike – and the theme was the usual “innovate or die”, more innovation when times are tough, etc, with quotes from Darwin, Edison, Einstein as well as video clips with Guy Kawasaki (yep, him again). Not bad as an advert for the Innovation Center.org, but not sure the real estate guys got anything from it.
So what else did I see? – lots of glass towers optimistically proposed for small towns in eastern Europe, big Russian stands, but fewer Russians, Boris Johnson positive and idiosyncratic as usual, UK public sector led regen strong, a lot less money men and yes just a few people saying there are good schemes coming forward. But as Newhart says too many think its “keep your head down and in two years time you can carry on as before” – no, the old model is not only broke, but gone.
As for the anticipated Twitter #Mipim buzz it didn’t really happen – a few from individuals, the magazines – especially BD & Estates Gazette, but maybe everyone was too “busy” to report their progress minute by minute. Most were saying “its less busy, but the key players are still here” – perhaps justification for the bosses back home?
It is with some quiet satisfaction I report that a Japanese study (admittedly sponsored by Yamaha) led by the nueroscientist behind Nintendo DS Brain Training, Ryuta Kawashima, has tested a number of middle aged men who after returning to motorcycling saw improvements in memory, information processing and concentration functions.
The riders said they made fewer mistakes at work and felt happier.
Kawashima said “Our final conclusion is that riding motorcycles can lead to smart ageing.” So can I get some tax breaks on my health plan that involves more motorcycling?
Also in the comments on Hell for Leather- “you don’t stop riding because you get old, you get old because you stop riding”
and another cafe racer image for the fans out there – Ala Verda - Norton Commando engine, Laverda frame:
Just a quick redirect to an article by Kevin Kelly (not the guy from Long Now, Wired, etc) in Forbes about risk and innovation, which has been a topic I have spent a lot of time on this week. Apart from the references to our old friend Daniel Kahneman (see 18 previous posts) Kelly makes some valid but perhaps a bit general points on the balance between risk and innovation – one bank executive’s innovation is another civil engineers risk, as I might have said to Rod earlier this week.
Kelly says “Everyone is taking, if anything, too little risk.” well yes, but lets explore that…while the points he makes about framing and emotion reflect Tversky and Kahneman, its still a stretch in the current economic situation to feel that corporate risk taking will save the day. Or maybe I misread it – if so I blame the last glass of red wine. I did, however, like this bit:
“How can you as a leader instill a culture that makes your employees wisely embrace risk and figure out new ways to build revenues? Here are three suggestions: (1) Ensure employees see unanimity across the senior team about the firm’s priorities; (2) encourage mistakes. “If you fail, try again. Fail again. Fail better,” said the playwright Samuel Beckett (we can learn a lot from the creative process); (3) make collaboration desirable. Complex problems require collaborative solutions. Where leaders fail to persuade their people to collaborate, ambiguity and competitiveness rush to fill the vacuum.”
“We’re not going from a world of Business Model A to one of Business Model B, we’re going from Business Model A to Business Models A to Z”.
That was what I was trying to explain to a potential client, our new method doesn’t depose the old method, just massively increases your options.
The Stephen Johnson quotes (he wrote “The Invention of Air” – about Priestley and science, also the excellent “Ghost Map”), picked out by Russell, emphasises the role of groups coming together outside of the traditional frameworks to further science, technology and industry.
This focus on groups of common interests, often very niche and specialist, reflects what we are trying to build in our new behavioural change models (applied to transport this time). Still need to get evidence to convince clients of the multiverse of options, because risk is number one on everyones mind these days – “no one got sacked for buying IBM” as my old boss used to say… (well it was a long time ago)
New video for an old project from Jon Kamen (Radical Media) exploring urbanisation and the rise of megacities, on Fora TV.
The 19.20.21 project draws attention to the way such cities are growing and the problems of mass urbanisation, particularly in developing nations. How do we live in cities and how does that change over time?
“Finding the future first” means sharing data and information, so that better decisions are made, from infrastructure to health to culture. The benefits of vertical living to save space, energy efficient mass transit systems are cited.
The section on the largest cities at 1000, 1500,1900, 1950 and 2005 are as expected - the global cities are now mainly in Asia – as Kamen suggests urbanisation driven by water supply and location – well, yes and a few other factors .
Ultimately this is a promotional video for a potentially interesting information project, so dependent on the audience you probably know this stuff already (or couldn’t care less). The site is OK, although my website designer pals would have plenty to beef about, just need to come back in 12 months time and see if its objectives have been met. As the idea has been kicking around since 2007 I perhaps won’t hold my breath waiting.
Not sure about you, but I am less and less interested in the showy new, nouveu riche, architecture of Dubai and China. With the northern European architects I constantly find much more to enjoy, where sensitivity to place and context is job 1, but not reduced to neo classical kitsch or Quinlan Terry faux Nash terraces (see Richmond Riverside) – one good example is the work of NL Architects.
By 2014 Groningen will have a striking new building on one side of the Grote Markt that I will want to visit, with NL winning the design competition. The Groninger Forum will be (dread phrase) a “cultural centre”, but perhaps like the Pompidou Centre will go from alien to much loved in as little as 20 years…
On the NL website the flythroughs and walkthroughs are particularly good, giving a sense of how the building will work.
Amongst my reading of learned journals – “Coach and Bus Weekly” , “Treehugger Monthly”, “Economics World”, “Which Behaviour” – I await the delivery of Performance Bike magazine each month with great anticipation. They tell me that the new Suzuki GSXR 1000 (“The ultimate evolution of the GSX-R family. Born to be on the track.”) beats the Honda Fireblade (“Stronger Looks. Sharper Performance. Astoundingly Responsive Control.” ) by 0.1 secs. in perfect conditions on a test track. Great.
In Bike magazine, amidst the 600cc race replica shootouts and after a foray into alternative fuels last year ( a Triumph 675 fuelled by apples!) Rupert Paul writes this month about how we could make racing fun again and get great bikes for the next three generations. After describing his vision of the 2016 Estoril GP, with a wide range of competing fuels – methanol, bio-ethanol, batteries, LPG, solar, fuel cell, etc. - he says:
“this is what racing could be like – a feast of competing technologies not seen since the 1920s. All it would take is one rule: to limit every machine to a fixed amount of start-line energy”
This view of the near future is prompted by a paper by Turner and Pearson of Lotus Engineering, home of the Exige 270E Tri-fuel. They recognise that current racing regs, particularly F1, do not encourage fuel savings or alt tech (or social responsibility). If racing really does improve the breed and we get trickle-down then let it lead the charge to new technology.
The TTXGP at 2009’s Isle of Man TT should be the first opportunity to test the theory… hopefully I will be there.
The paper, “The Application of Energy-Based Fuel Formulae to Increase the Efficiency Relevance and Reduce the CO2 Emissions of Motor Sport”, is available from SAE.
Why stop at racing – if all new vehicles had a inception and lifetime energy limit, based on a common megajoule measure, then manufacturers would rethink their fuel strategies pretty quick.
From the Digital Life, Design 2009 conference I found this video of a discussion with Daniel Kahneman (2002 Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences) and Nassim Nicholas Taleb (author of “Fooled by Randomness” and ”The Black Swan”). In “Reflections on a Crisis” they explore how economic behaviours, bias and risk taking got us to where we are in the global recession and how counter-intuitive actions may help us recover.
DLD is not a conference that I was too aware of until recently, but with the benefit of offering all their sessions on video we can all get the benefits without a trip to Munich (although I may be making the case for a ticket to next years event!). Other speakers videos this year well worth watching include Dan Airely (of course!), David Weinberger “Knowledge in the Age of Abundance” , Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook growth and where next and a panel on Internet Politics in the age of the first “Internet President”.
Thanks again to Jessica Hagy & ”Indexed” for an image that reflects my last 7 days… luckily my friends and colleagues have been doing the heavy lifting on the blog frontline:
Avoiding work constructively and so enjoyed some old clips from Yoram Bauman, PHD and the self styled world’s first “standup economist”- although a little theoretical knowledge might help in crossing over the humour barrier for mere mortals (or neo Keynesians).
Recent gigs at Chartered Financial Analyists local meetings… World tour promised, the LSE should book him now.
He was also on PBS today (which why I checked out his YouTube back catalogue, in a long tail sort of way) and in a relatively straight interview, surprise, surprise, he got asked about the recession – almost missed the reference to Black Swans, though.
I am very impressed with Alltop.com, from Nononina, which I have been using for some time now. Its one of the best news and blog aggregators I have used – “aggregation without the aggravation”. Clear easily usable web 2.0 design, lots of nice features.
As they say:
“Alltop is an “online magazine rack” of popular topics. We update the stories every hour. Pick a topic by searching, news category, or name, and we’ll deliver it to you 24 x 7.All the topics, all the time.”
I now have the social media page as my gateway to the net, problem is there’s almost too much good content – it also highlights the need for good titles for your blogposts (yes, I know I have a lot to learn still).
Apart from getting this blog into one of the categories (which one, any suggestions?) I will be recommending they add transport – luckily they have economics, environment, motorcycles, music, pop culture, etc. so my other interests are covered. Decision Science is another good page…
The main thing is that it does save time in giving a focus to the content you want, without missing out on serendipity.
Ah, yes, time for the reviews of the year, and in our specialist area how does transport – general, green, any mode – fare in the analysis, especially in the economic context where eco innovation is:
Our saviour, or
Too expensive
The US transport top ten trends from Inhabitat includes the death of the SUV, green cars saving the industry, high performance sports cars saving the planet , (pedal) bikes are cool, etc. The view from over there suggests some naivety about what we achieve in Europe, however. Conclusions for 09: more mass transit and greener cars – thanks, I could have guessed that. Although for mainstream US of A that may be still too radical.
And imagine my disappointment when the electric GM Chevrolet Volt concept car of 2007:
became the boring pre production car shown in 2008 (first deliveries in 2010, kids):
But before I pour self righteous scorn on my brothers across the sea what have we identified as worthy of mention in the UK and Europe? What Car votes a turbo diesel Ford Focus as its green car of 2008 and Toyota for its technology. The Eden Project and the Co-op sponsored the sexy green car show in summer 2008. ..and er, that’s it, apart from a few comments on the “fuel crisis” in the review of the year in mags such as New Scientist.
PS thanks to Oxtran to alerting me to “Traffic Jam”, the review of the last 10 years of sustainable transport - which ended up on my xmas shopping list (sad but true).
Wired Autoblog closes the year with a roundup of the half a dozen green bike orientated stories it has already run. No “new” news but OK as an intro to the subject. The article and comments pickup on the difference (for existing bikes) between good fuel economy – tick - and low pollution – uh, not really. As my Aprilia hardly gets 30mpg and 120 miles on a tank I am not even sure on the first point…
The more discussion the better, but I can’t see a lot more R&D money going into it in the next few years unless battery technology really changes.
PS why? – as usual the US comments have their kicks at the liberals and big government, or hit back at the failure of free markets – is every blog post on any topic grist to the mill for this poorly thought out rhetoric? Play nicely, children…
Are there trustworthy analytics/metrics for measuring “influence”? In the web 2.0 world we count hits on the blog, friends on Facebook, Twitter stats, etc.
According to Twinfluence I have a Twitter rank of #8,862 and:
Velocity: 1,020 second-order followers/day
Social Capital: 56,171.6 +10.6 Very High
Centralization: 55.50% / -0.5 Average – Fragile
To understand this read a “Web Analytics Demystified” blogpost from Eric Peterson here - in truth it means I am selective who I follow and who I allow to follow me – the figures can be manipulated…
He also talks about the Twitter ratio - mine is less than 1.0, pretty normal:
“A ratio of less than 1.0 indicates that you are seeking knowledge (and Twitter Friends), but not getting much Twitter Love in return.
A ratio of around 1.0 means you are respected among your peers. Either that or you follow your Mom and she follows you.
A ratio of 2.0 or above shows that you are a popular person and people want to hear what you have to say. You might be a thought leader in your community.
A ratio 10 or higher indicates that you’re either a Rock Star in your field or you are an elitist and you cannot be bothered by Twitter’s mindless chatter. You like to hear yourself talk. Luckily others like to hear you talk, too. You may be an ass. “
If I start using social media to get my my “numbers” up – on whatever media – is that building a brand or ego bombing your constituency? Peterson says:
“Hey, the two things I spend the most time on in Twitter is trying to find great people to follow and trying to share interesting ideas.”
Same here, although because the UK hasn’t got Twitter into the mainstream yet ( and certainly not non IT folk) I am not surprised that it is less effective in getting conversations going.
To come back to the original question web analytics are good on numbers (and can be gamed), but understanding influence in the wider sense (how to achieve behaviour change) is more than a numbers game (sorry).
Imagine the scene – you get Dan Kahneman, Richard Thaler, Sendhil Mullainathan in a room in California to deliver a master class on behavourial economics, courtesy of Edge. In the audience you have Jeff Bezos, Nathan Myhrvold, Danny Hillis, Ev Williams, George Dyson and other A listers.
6 sessions, with videos and text, plus Q&A. As an example – session 1 – Thaler’s Nudge theory, choice architecture and “libertarian paternalism” are explored – interesting that he was going to call his book “Everything Matters”. I like the phrase “one click paternalism” as well if not the possible negative outcome. Maybe we can get the opt out choice architecture right on our company car share scheme.
While its not an instant fix – behavioral econ rarely is – its worth the investment in time to get up to speed on the basics.
BTW The use of the Enron film title is just me being ironic…
A few images and stories to get my blog back into the biker esoterica:
The Suzuki Crosscage concept bike from 2007 uses hybrid electric hydrogen fuel cell motor and is now a working prototype. Single-sided swing-arm and front fork, superlight and fast enough 100mph speed limited. Just need to perfect the fuel cell technology – nothing on Suzuki’s website to suggest its anywhere near production. (Story from Hell for Leather originally, YouTube video here).
Another YouTube video this time of the NONOBJECT nUCLEUS. Conceptual, yes, insane, yes…
Still no word from the Stonebridge Motor Company or Nick Gale as to when or if their Ace Cafe racer, Little Miss Dynamite, launched in June, will be on sale. With an S&S V twin, plus a featherbed style frame, alloy tank, interesting exhaust plumbing I would be counting out my pools winning to get an order in…
Click the images for the full picture.
Chris Gilmour, Brit artist based in northern Italy, uses only cardboard and glue to make his life size sculptures/ models and the artworld loves them.
Working my way through this years “Pop!Casts” from Pop!Tech I settled down for the Malcolm Gladwell show. The premise of his new book, Outliers, leaves me a little underwhelmed – “so what” comes to mind – and I know that there has been some cultural critics who have argued that we have seen diminishing returns from Tipping Point to Blink to Outliers.
I haven’t read it yet so will reserve judgement, but as bloggers take plenty of credit for compiling other sources of information and thought surely it would be a bit wrong to characterise Gladwell as just a pop sociologist, reading the difficult books so you don’t have to?
13. Lunch with at least one weirdo per month (goal: always on the prowl for interesting new stuff)
30. You can’t do it all – be clear what you are good at, bad at, indifferent at. Hubris sucks.
47. Know more than the next guy. Homework pays.
76. IT’S ALWAYS YOUR PROBLEM – you sold it to them.
In a recession we also have wise words from Jason Calacanis, who has got a lot of traffic for his take on survival. Interestingly first distributed by mass email on Jasonlist, not via his blog – see the 120% Solution, now finally published on the blog here.
Also from Guy Kawasaki’s blog, discrediting the A list social media meme, but not the “influencers like you and me” idea, talks about the use of Twitter as a marketing tool:
Forget the “influentials.”You must buy into the theory that products and services reach critical mass because mere mortals spread the word for you. This defies the common wisdom that a handful of “influentials” shape what the rest of us try and what we adopt. In the online world, these influentials include Mike “I can go a week without Twitter” Arrington, Robert Scoble, Seth Godin, and to some extent me.
Reliance on influentials is flawed because the Internet has flattened and democratized information. Influentials don’t have as much special access, special knowledge, and distribution as you might think because of the growth of websites, blogs, and, of course, Twitter.
Well what I need now are some social media marketing businesses to work with on a project in Brighton (lets see if this sentence gets picked up by a potential business partner, by osmosis or Google)…
While doing my research I came across the debate in various blogs on the fate of the self appointed/publicly acclaimed experts as well as the corporate social media specialists and the hired guns (and much speculation whether they will/can survive the recession?) Examples include Shel Israel’s post and the highly relevant comments – as Shel says in his open letter to CEOs -
“This is the time to think about the most efficient way to be closest to you customers, to what’s left of your company ecosystem. You need to be among the first to detect the nuances of your market and adjust. You need to think about the most efficient way to keep in the conversation. “
Enough to encourage Hugh MacLeod to produce several (tongue in cheek) Social Media Specialist drawings :
Someone said in one of the blog comments that the only proof of SM expertise is results – agreed, so thats what I am looking for.
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